What Declining Enrollment Means for the Future of California Students
In 2020, for the first time in the state’s history, California’s population shrank. Although the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend, the underlying factors that made the decline possible began long before and affect states other than California. Since the economic recession of the late 2000’s, birth rates across the United States have declined steadily, recently reaching an all-time low. As of 2021, no state has a fertility rate of at least 2.1, the level required to avoid population decreases. Next year, children who were born as fertility rates began their decline are set to turn 18, graduate from high school, and begin their higher education journey. After them, nearly every subsequent graduating class is projected to be smaller than the previous one, a state of affairs that will have massive effects on the future of postsecondary education.
California’s K-12 Enrollment Has Already Peaked
California’s Department of Finance projects the state’s K-12 enrollment to shrink by over 600,000 students over the next decade and by over 900,000 students by 2045, a 15% decline. High school graduate totals are projected to decline by an even larger rate, with graduating class sizes shrinking by over 60,000 students over the next decade and by over 100,000 students by 2045, for an overall drop-off of 25%. The California Community College and California State University systems are already struggling to bounce back from enrollment declines in recent years, and consistently smaller incoming high school graduate classes will only increase the difficulties in meeting many of the targets laid out in the governor’s “Compacts.” The “Compacts”—a series of agreements between the governor and the university and college systems aimed at coordinating the various elements of the state’s higher education sector towards achieving 70 percent postsecondary degree and certificate attainment among working-aged Californians by 2030—includes targeted goals for future enrollment, some of which (for the CSU) are required to avoid missing out on future funding commitments.
Projections for Other Large States are Much Less Dire
While the United States as a whole is projected to decline over the coming decades, there is considerable variation in projected enrollment and graduating class size at the state level. Using data from the National Center for Education Statistics projections (which extend only to 2031 and differ marginally from the California Department of Finance projections), we see that the scale of California’s projected decline in K-12 enrollment is not merely typical of a nationwide trend, but rather the second greatest in the country, behind only Hawaii.
Comparing California to other high population states and the United States as a whole, the state is projected to lose a substantially greater percentage of their K-12 enrollment than the others, and only New York projects a larger decline in high school graduating class size. By contrast, Florida, Texas, and Georgia, comparably populated states with considerable levels of diversity, are projected to suffer minimal losses or even increase their K-12 enrollment and high school graduate totals over the next decade.
The foremost explanation for these differences is rather straightforward. California birth rates have declined at a greater rate than most of the country, ranking fifth in largest rate of decline between 2008-2020, behind only four other western states with much smaller population sizes. However, birth rate changes are not the only relevant factor at play here. States like Florida, Texas, and Georgia are projected to make up for declining birth rates by successfully attracting migrants. Each of those states has managed positive net-migration totals over the last fifteen years, with Florida leading the nation in that regard. California’s net migration rates, largely driven by domestic migration, have been trending in the wrong direction for years (with Texas being the most common destination for Californians), and the state has lost more immigrants than it’s gained each year since 2016. Of the country's most populous states, the combination of declining birth rates and negative net-migration is found only among California and New York, which are the two states expected to suffer the largest enrollment declines in the coming decade.
What’s Next for California Higher Ed?
As the number of high school graduates continues to decline, California’s universities and community colleges must ensure they are enrolling a growing percentage of California’s high school graduates and supporting them to complete their college educations. Despite improvements in recent years, nearly half of all public high school graduates do not meet all A-G requirements. The graduating class of 2023 alone included more than 200,000 such students, signifying an enormous group of untapped potential. Achieving a 70% workforce attainment goal when the number of young people in the state is falling will require us to ensure we are supporting all our students to finish high school with the coursework they need to enroll in college.
Other such groups can be found all over the state. The importance of efforts to reach them by simplifying transfer pathways, increasing retention rates, or developing additional outreach efforts to students who dropped out during the pandemic will only increase in the coming years. While the educational landscape might be shifting, the goal of ensuring equitable educational opportunities and outcomes for all California students remains evergreen.